Uganda Q1 2026
Performance Review

January – March 2026  |  Uganda Team
Executive Summary

Where We Stand

What's Working
  • KYC conversion improving: 44.5% → 49.2% (Jan→Mar)
  • Collections grew 53%: 2.48B → 3.78B UGX (Jan→Mar)
  • March L0 was best month: 3,777 loans (96.2% of target)
What's Not Working
  • Q1 L0 at 83.4% of target — missed by 1,843 loans
  • CAC spiked to $10 in Feb before recovering
  • 60+ DPD is 34% of active loans — 1.91B UGX at risk
One Takeaway: March trajectory is the right one. Sustain it — or Q2 falls short too.
Q1 L0 vs Target
83.4%
9,237 / 11,080
Mar L0 vs Target
96.2%
3,777 / 3,928
Q1 Collections
9.23B
UGX — +53% Jan→Mar
60+ DPD Exposure
1.91B
UGX — 34% of active
Growth Performance

L0 at 83.4% of Target — Feb Was the Problem, Mar Nearly Hit It

MonthActualTarget% Hit
January2,7523,22485.4%
February2,7083,92868.9%
March3,7773,92896.2%
Q1 Total9,23711,08083.4%
Repeat Loans (LN1+)
  • 25,009 repeat loans in Q1
  • Growth: 6,774 → 8,719 → 10,516 (Jan→Mar)
Feb drop: NITA downtime blocked KYC
Mar recovery: Chenosis USSD fallback + campaign optimization
Growth Performance

Funnel Improving — But KYC→L0 Loses 2 in 3 Users

StageJanFebMar
Installs21.4K21.5K20.5K
Registrations17.9K19.0K21.3K
KYC Verified7,9448,75910,453
L0 Disbursed2,7522,7083,777
Conversion Rates
StepJanFebMar
Signup → KYC44.5%46.1%49.2%
KYC → L034.6%30.9%36.1%
Attribution gap: 38% of L0 are unattributed — can't trace to any campaign.
Growth Performance

CAC: $10 in Feb → $7.55 in Mar — Best Campaigns Under $6

Q1 Spend
$75.2K
Feb CAC (peak)
$10.00
Mar CAC
$7.55
Best CAC
$5.69
L0 Master Signals
Top Campaigns
CampaignL0CACKYC→L0
L0 Master Signals225$5.6933.6%
L0 no CG DR Top119$6.5940.8%
In-app L0 no CG920$7.9941.3%
SafeBoda Riders190N/A50.7%
In-app L0 NEW47$9.7230.7%
Repayment Performance

Collections Up 53%, but 60+ DPD Is 34% of Active Portfolio

Q1 Collections
9.23B
UGX
Mar Collections
3.79B
+53% vs Jan
Active Portfolio
6.06B
23,451 loans
60+ DPD
1.91B
7,963 loans (34%)
Portfolio by DPD Bucket
Current 48.6%
8-30
31-60
60+ DPD 34%
Focus: The 8-30 DPD bucket (291M UGX, 1,549 loans) is where intensity prevents rollover to 60+.
DPD BucketLoansAmount% of Total
Current11,3913.33B48.6%
1-7 DPD715157M3.0%
8-30 DPD1,549291M6.6%
31-60 DPD1,832369M7.8%
60+ DPD7,9631.91B34.0%
Profit & Cost

Disbursements at 62% of Budget — Revenue Gap Needs Attention

Budget vs Actual (Q1 UGX)
MetricBudgetActualGap
Disbursements14.9B9.30B62%
Revenue1.55B1.07B69%
New Customers (L0)11,0809,23783%
Write-offs (budget)877M—
60+ DPD exposure—1.91B2.2× budget
Positive Signal:
Q1 collections (9.22B) nearly match disbursements (9.30B). Existing book is close to cash-flow neutral.
  • Finance: P&L reconciliation needed
  • Are we on the 600M UGX annual profit trajectory?
  • Cost discipline is non-negotiable
Repayment Execution

Initiative Status — Team Input Needed

InitiativeOwnerStatusImpact
Referral ProgramMarketing + ProductTo ConfirmNew customer acquisition at lower CAC
Interaction PlanCollectionsTo ConfirmStructured contact cadence for DPD buckets
Debt CollectorCollectionsTo ConfirmExternal recovery for deep DPD
USSD (Chenosis)ProductLIVEKYC fallback for MTN users — working
WhatsApp ChannelProduct + SupportTo ConfirmAlternative communication & payment channel
Product PromotionMarketing + BUTo ConfirmRepeat borrowing incentives
Confirmed win: Chenosis USSD contributed to March KYC recovery. MTN users who fail NITA can verify via USSD OTP.
Action: Each team lead — update your initiative status with R / A / G rating before next review.
Second Chance Recovery

1.91B UGX in 60+ DPD — Even 10% Recovery = 191M Back

60+ DPD Portfolio
1.91B
7,963 loans
10% Recovery
191M
UGX back into business
What Second Chance Does
  • Structured repayment plan for defaulted borrowers
  • Rehabilitate credit history → eligible for future loans
  • Reduces write-off pressure on P&L
  • Brand signal: Fido is fair — we give second chances
Who Owns What
Collections
  • Identify candidates from 60+ DPD pool
  • Manage outreach and engagement
  • Track conversion to active repayment
Customer Support
  • Handle inbound from Second Chance users
  • Guide them through the process
  • Escalate issues to Collections
Status: Team to confirm current progress — how many candidates identified? What's the response rate?
Key Challenges

5 Things Holding Us Back Right Now

#1 — L0 Volume 17% Below Target
9,237 vs 11,080 — can't hit profit without more new customers
Affects: Revenue, Marketing ROI, Field activation
#2 — 60+ DPD at 34% of Active Loans
1.91B UGX at risk — exceeds 877M write-off budget by 2.2×
Affects: Collections, Finance, P&L
#3 — 38% of L0 Unattributed
Can't trace to any campaign — can't optimize what we can't measure
Affects: Marketing efficiency, budget allocation
#4 — KYC→L0 Conversion at 33%
Losing 2 of 3 verified users before their first loan
Affects: Product, BU, approval policy
#5 — CAC Volatile ($7.55–$10.00)
Not yet stable enough to scale marketing confidently
Affects: Marketing, budget planning, unit economics
Pattern: "This is the problem → this is your role → this is what we do next" — see next slide.
Focus Areas — Next 4-6 Weeks

What Each Team Owns — April to May

Marketing
  • Scale best campaigns (L0 Master $5.69 CAC, SafeBoda 51% conv.)
  • Target: CAC below $7.50 in April
  • Close attribution gap with Product/Eng
Collections
  • Prioritize 8-30 DPD bucket — stop the roll to 60+
  • Accelerate Second Chance program
  • Target: collect 4B+ UGX in April
Product / BU
  • Investigate KYC→L0 drop (approval rate vs UX friction)
  • Fix attribution tracking for Uganda campaigns
  • Expand Chenosis USSD to more users
Customer Support
  • Reduce complaint-driven churn
  • Support collections escalation path
  • Handle Second Chance inbound
Field Operations
  • KYC activations in low-performing areas
  • Run field activation campaigns with Marketing
  • Face-to-face collection visits for 8-30 DPD
Link to Results:
Marketing → CAC, L0 volume
Collections → DR30, recovery, AR
Product → KYC→L0 conversion, attribution
Support → churn reduction
Field → KYC volume, field collections
Support Needed

What We Need from Group / Product

1
Attribution Fix
38% of L0 unattributed → Engineering needs to close this. Without it, Marketing is flying blind on $75K/quarter spend.
2
Approval Rate Audit
Are we rejecting good borrowers? Credit team to analyze the KYC→L0 drop at the approval step. Could unlock hundreds of L0/month.
3
Chenosis USSD Expansion
It's working for KYC — contributed to March recovery. Accelerate rollout to all MTN users.
4
Collections Tooling
Better segmentation and prioritization for 8-30 DPD bucket. Current manual process limits call intensity.
5
Google Ads Data Pipeline
Uganda's ETL is broken — zero rows in Snowflake. All CAC numbers rely on manual exports. Data team needs to fix this.
Priority order: Attribution fix → Approval rate audit → Chenosis → Tooling → ETL
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Speaker Notes

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